A 74-year-old woman is evaluated in the hospital for management of a painful skin lesion on her left lower leg that has been present for 3 weeks. The initial lesion began as a small darkened area that progressively increased in size with worsening pain. Her pain is now so severe that she is unable to walk. Medical history is significant for end-stage kidney disease requiring hemodialysis, type 2 diabetes mellitus, and hypertension. Medications are insulin, calcitriol, calcium carbonate, erythropoietin, aspirin, and lisinopril, although the patient has significant difficulty with medication adherence.

On physical examination, temperature is 37.3 °C (99.1 °F), blood pressure is 143/80 mm Hg, pulse rate is 102/min, and respiration rate is 15/min. The left lower extremity lesion is shown.

Which of the following is the most likely diagnosis?