A 78-year-old man is evaluated for low back and leg pain. He first noticed symptoms about 2 years ago, and they have steadily worsened. He describes a dull ache in the low back and pain that radiates down both legs. The leg pain is worse when ambulating and absent when seated, and his symptoms are particularly noticeable when walking up steps. He notes no previous trauma, weakness, or systemic symptoms. Medical history is significant for hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and obesity. He is a retired carpenter. Medications are ramipril, rosuvastatin, and as-needed acetaminophen and naproxen.

On physical examination, vital signs are normal. BMI is 31. The general medical examination is unremarkable. There is normal muscle bulk and tone in the lower extremities, and the distal extremities are warm with palpable dorsalis pedis and posterior tibialis pulses. No point tenderness is detected with palpation of the spine. Hyperextension of the back exacerbates the pain. There is no lower extremity weakness, and reflexes and sensory examination findings are normal.

Which of the following is the most likely cause of this patient's symptoms?