A 24-year-old man is evaluated for a 2-month history of frequent upper respiratory tract infections, easy bruising, and worsening endurance. Medical and family histories are unremarkable. He takes no medications.

On physical examination, the patient appears fatigued, but not acutely ill. Temperature is 36.7 °C (98.0 °F), blood pressure is 105/62 mm Hg, pulse rate is 108/min, and respiration rate is 14/min. Pallor and several 3- to 4-cm ecchymoses on the lower extremities are noted. He has no hepatosplenomegaly.

Laboratory studies:

Haptoglobin

40 mg/dL (400 mg/L)

Hemoglobin

7.2 g/dL (72 g/L)

Leukocyte count

1000/µL (1 × 109/L) with 5% neutrophils

Platelet count

7000/µL (7 × 109/L)

Lactate dehydrogenase

150 U/L

Bone marrow aspirate demonstrates less than 5% blasts and no dysplastic changes. Results of a bone marrow biopsy are shown.

Which of the following is the most likely diagnosis?