A 55-year-old woman is evaluated in the emergency department for respiratory failure due to an acute exacerbation of COPD. She is confused and her mental status is rapidly worsening. She is intubated and placed on mechanical ventilation with propofol for sedation. The initial peak inspiratory pressure is 30 cm H2O and plateau pressure is 15 cm H2O. Oxygen saturation is 98% on an FIO2 of 0.6. Thirty minutes later, the peak inspiratory pressure is 42 cm H2O and the plateau pressure is 30 cm H2O. Oxygen saturation is 92% on an FIO2 of 0.6.

On physical examination, she is afebrile, blood pressure is now 100/60 mm Hg (150/80 mm Hg on admission), pulse rate is 110/min (90/min on admission), and respiration rate is 30/min. There is jugular venous distention. Heart sounds are faint. Trachea is midline, and breath sounds are distant but equal bilaterally.

Which of the following is most likely responsible for this patient's change in airway pressures?